3 Possible Ways Current Kenya Political Crisis Will Pan Out

The country is in deep political and economic crisis. A solution must be found fast, before the nation collapses.

Deputy president Rigathi Gachagua & National Assembly majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah are openly hostile to any idea of Azimio’s Raila Odinga & UDA’s William Ruto talking, even going as far as to attempt to sabotage any such dialogue, by falsely claiming that “Raila wants handshake with Ruto”, and that is “unacceptable”.

What is it about Raila that makes Rigathi & Ichung’wah apparently hate him more than Ruto hates him?

I believe it is not about Rigathi & Ichung’wah hating Raila. It is more complicated than that.

To understand what is going on, we must first focus on how this govt came to power.

No reasonable, unbiased Kenyan really believes that Ruto defeated Raila in the election.

The election was stolen. Period.

But I want to focus on something else: People who actually voted for Ruto & UDA party.

UDA campaigned in a manner never seen in Kenya history – 5 years of continuous campaigns, pouring money in the streets, in churches, and especially in churches.

They also hammered the so-called “hustler” narrative – dynasty vs hustler – into their supporters’ minds.

The gist of their propaganda was basically this:

Since independence, leaders at the top have been EATING (were corrupt), while they did not let peasants EAT.

They also claimed that children of those who held big jobs in govt in the past – the “dynasties” – were protected as they ATE, while children of peasants (even if these children were now very rich) would be prosecuted if they ATE (and also, that sometimes they were accused of EATING even when they had not).

(NOTE: This was just propaganda, and in fact, the regime’s no. 3 – Musalia Mudavadi – is son of former cabinet minister in President Moi’s govt (Moses Mudavadi). Further, it was Moi who made it clear to voters – during single party dictatorship – that they had to “elect Musalia unoppossed”, when he was just 29 years old. Moi immediately made him minister (CS) for Supplies and Marketing, before promoting him to finance/treasury minister (CS) 3 years later).

Back to the “hustler” propaganda.

They claimed that, voting for Ruto would mean that, those at the top ATE, but also allowed the peasants to EAT, too.

In other words, it was in peasants’ interest to vote for Ruto & company, even if they were corrupt (they never denied that they were corrupt), because when they banned the “dynasties” from the EATING table, there would be (i) enough money remaining to fund peasants’ projects, and (ii) peasants would also have equal chance to get big jobs and also EAT.

This propaganda was spread daily – for 5 years – in the streets, in the media, in churches, in social media…

Naturally, such a utopia cannot exist in reality.

If the head of state is openly corrupt, even collection of tax will be a problem, because tax collectors are also motivated to pocket a significant amount of tax they collect
– i.e. EAT as much as they can, just as The Big Man.

The peasants will be paying tax through VAT and other mandatory tax methods, while those at the top EAT.

VAT and other taxes that affect the poor the most are raised to cover for deficit caused by stolen taxes.

The poor become poorer. And this is already happening in Kenya.

Those of us who pointed out that Kenyans were being fed propaganda and psyops, were shadow banned online – no African is capable of shadow-banning people on Twitter, Facebook, Google etc.

Therefore, this “Kenyan problem” was created by powerful non-Africans.

Currently, Kenyan economy is on free fall.

The Shilling is at lowest level to US dollar in country’s history.

And this happened before Azimio called for demos.

Apparently, UDA’s plan after the economy started going downhill after they took power – as expected – was to direct wananchi’s anger towards the “dynasties”, hoping they will take matters into their own hands, and raid properties of so-called dynasties.

Senior UDA politicians have been spreading this anti-“dynasty” propaganda for months, but no peasant took the bait.

So, about 10 days ago, these senior ruling party politicians met, and hired goons to raid some so-called dynasties’ properties.

The thugs were paid Sh3,000 each, and transported to Odinga family property, and also to Kenyatta family property.

The hired criminals stole what they could, and destroyed what they couldn’t steal.

Police told the media they had been ordered not to stop the crime.

Videos of the hired thugs committing the crimes are available online.

The politicians who hired the gangs are known.

None has been arrested.

It was clear that it was the government attacking (paying thugs to attack) so-called dynasties, and ordered police not to interfere – how did they expect this to remain a secret?

The plot to start a “class war” between “hustlers” and “dynasties” was exposed for what it was – a govt-powered project to use hired gangs to attack their opponents.

The plan to direct wananchi’s hunger and anger towards so-called dynasties back-fired. It failed miserably.

Govt-aided criminality scares, not only foreign investors, but also local businessmen who are not allied to the govt (or apolitical).

Now that the govt can no longer use “dynasties” as the scapegoat for increased poverty and hunger, and with Azimio demos combining the very serious matters of stolen election and unbearable cost of living, Ruto has found himself in a corner.

He has only 3 options:

1. Engage in dialogue with Raila, hoping to weaken him by bombarding him with big promises so that he forgets about demos, then later stab him in the back.

He would hope that this strategy would lead to him finishing Raila politically.

This strategy would be supported by both Deputy president Rigathi Gachagua & National Assembly majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah.

However, Raila is not naive, and this strategy is very unlikely to succeed.

If Azimio sees the bait – as they should – they say demonstrations are back on.

2. Ruto & Raila engage in talks that eventually lead to nowhere.

This strategy would be supported by both Deputy president Rigathi Gachagua & National Assembly majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah.

Azimio says demonstrations are back on.

Note: The economy is in a very bad state.

One cabinet secretary has advised hungry Kenyans to be patient, and wait for the next harvest several months from now.

That is not the way to talk to poor people, who are already seeing senior govt officials having money for buying luxury cars increased.

Peasants have seen the head of state even defying the law to appoint 50 of his (already rich) friends and allies as Chief Cabinet Secretaries (CAS), complete with huge salaries and other allowances.

In option 1 & 2 above, the current govt would be very lucky to survive 6 months.

The weekly demos will quickly turn into a peasants’ revolution against the EATING UDA elite.

3. Ruto realizes that, if he follows advice of his close allies like Rigathi and Ichung’wah, he could very well be toppled by angry, hungry Kenyans, and be forced into exile or end up in jail.

He also realises that, there is no way he can shake off close political allies like Rigathi and Ichung’wah, without first dis-entangling himself from the Mossad agents embedded into him.

He kicks these Mossad agents out of his life and requests Raila agree to a one-on-one meeting, as 2 Kenyan patriots, keen to save the country.

Ruto does the right thing.

He freely agrees to dissolve his government, resigns and hands over power to Azimio.

He lives a peaceful life, knowing that he did not let foreigners use him to destroy the country.

This 3rd option is the best for Ruto and the country.

But Rigathi and Ichung’wah would never forgive him for the “betrayal”.


Because, while Ruto can get rid of the Mossad agents embedded into him, and eventually live a normal life, such an option is not open to Rigathi and Ichung’wah.

No way they can dis-entangle themselves from the Mossad agents embedded into them, and also lead a normal life.

But the country is bigger than any individual.

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